What's your overall opinion of the Center For Applied Rationality?
: Positive:37 0.187 Mostly Positive:43 0.217 No strong opinion:97 0.49 Mostly Negative:7 0.035 Negative:2 0.01 None:12 0.061 Do you know what Effective Altruism is?: Yes:164 0.828 No but I've heard of it:19 0.096 No:12 0.061 None:3 0.015 Do you self-identify as an Effective Altruist?: Yes:70 0.354 No:116 0.586 N/A:12 0.061 Do you participate in the Effective Altruism community?: Yes:29 0.146 No:156 0.788 N/A:13 0.066 Has Effective Altruism caused you to make donations you otherwise wouldn't?: Yes:84 0.424 No:99 0.5 N/A:15 0.076 Have you ever had any kind of moral anxiety over Effective Altruism?: Yes:52 0.263 Yes but only because I worry about everything:17 0.086 No:111 0.561 None:18 0.091 What's your overall opinion of Effective Altruism?: Positive:83 0.419 Mostly Positive:60 0.303 No strong opinion:35 0.177 Mostly Negative:6 0.03 Negative:2 0.01 None:12 0.061 With which of these political positions do you most identify?: Progressive:24 0.121 Communist:1 0.005 Socialist:17 0.086 Conservative:9 0.045 Fascist:0 0.0 Neoreactionary:1 0.005 Social Democrat:33 0.167 Moderate:6 0.03 Pragmatist:11 0.056 Anarchist:5 0.025 Libertarian:13 0.066 Left-Libertarian:21 0.106 Objectivist:0 0.0 Monarchist:0 0.0 Futarchist:2 0.01 Totalitarian:0 0.0 Other:17 0.08585858585858586 None:37 0.187 Did you vote in your country's last major national election?: Yes:138 0.697 No:47 0.237 My country does not hold elections:0 0.0 None:13 0.066 If you are an American, what party are you registered with?: Democratic Party:19 0.096 Republican Party:6 0.03 Libertarian Party:0 0.0 Other third party:0 0.0 Not registered for a party:26 0.131 (option for non-Americans who want an option):102 0.515 None:45 0.227 On a scale from 1 (not interested at all) to 5 (extremely interested), how would you describe your level of interest in politics?: 1.0: 6 0.030303030303030304 2.0: 33 0.16666666666666666 3.0: 58 0.29292929292929293 4.0: 62 0.31313131313131315 5.0: 30 0.15151515151515152 5.0: 9 0.045454545454545456 How would you describe your opinion on abortion laws?: Abortion: Pro-Life:14 0.0707070707070707 Lean Pro-Life:5 0.025252525252525252 No strong opinion:8 0.04040404040404041 Lean Pro-Choice:24 0.12121212121212122 Pro-Choice:138 0.696969696969697 None:9 0.045454545454545456 How would you describe your opinion on immigration?: Immigration: Should be more open:69 0.3484848484848485 Lean more open:61 0.30808080808080807 No strong opinion:32 0.16161616161616163 Lean more restricted:15 0.07575757575757576 Should be more restricted:8 0.04040404040404041 None:13 0.06565656565656566 How would you describe your opinion on taxes in your country?: Taxes: Should be lower:17 0.08585858585858586 Lean towards lower:25 0.12626262626262627 No strong opinion:72 0.36363636363636365 Lean towards higher:47 0.23737373737373738 Should be higher:27 0.13636363636363635 None:10 0.050505050505050504 How would you describe your opinion on minimum wage laws in your country?: Minimum Wage: Should be lower or eliminated:17 0.08585858585858586 Lean towards lower or eliminated:16 0.08080808080808081 No strong opinion:59 0.29797979797979796 Lean towards higher:52 0.26262626262626265 Should be higher:41 0.20707070707070707 None:13 0.06565656565656566 How would you describe your opinion of feminism, as you understand the term? See also http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Feminism for more information: Feminism: Very unfavorable:7 0.03535353535353535 Unfavorable:26 0.13131313131313133 No strong opinion:29 0.14646464646464646 Favorable:72 0.36363636363636365 Very favorable:52 0.26262626262626265 None:12 0.06060606060606061 How would you describe your opinion of social justice, as you understand the term? See also http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_justice for more information: Social Justice: Very unfavorable:25 0.12626262626262627 Unfavorable:35 0.17676767676767677 No strong opinion:43 0.21717171717171718 Favorable:59 0.29797979797979796 Very favorable:21 0.10606060606060606 None:15 0.07575757575757576 How would you describe your opinion of the idea of "human biodiversity", as you understand the term? No Wiki page available, but essentially it is the belief that there are important genetic differences between human populations and that therefore ideas generally considered racist, such as different races having different average intelligence or personality traits, are in fact scientifically justified: Human Biodiversity: Very unfavorable:34 0.1717171717171717 Unfavorable:43 0.21717171717171718 No strong opinion:44 0.2222222222222222 Favorable:48 0.24242424242424243 Very favorable:12 0.06060606060606061 None:17 0.08585858585858586 How would you describe your opinion of a Basic Income Guarantee in your country? See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_Income_Guarantee for more information.: Basic Income: Strongly oppose:6 0.030303030303030304 Oppose:7 0.03535353535353535 No strong opinion:28 0.1414141414141414 Support:83 0.41919191919191917 Strongly support:64 0.32323232323232326 None:10 0.050505050505050504 Do you believe we are currently in or entering a "Great Stagnation", as proposed by Tyler Cowen and Peter Thiel, during which technological growth slows drastically? See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Great_Stagnation for more information: Great Stagnation: Strongly doubt:31 0.15656565656565657 Doubt:81 0.4090909090909091 No strong opinion:45 0.22727272727272727 Believe:19 0.09595959595959595 Strongly believe:2 0.010101010101010102 None:20 0.10101010101010101 Do you understand the instructions above?: Yes, I understand I should answer in percentages between 0 and 100:196 0.99 No, I don't read instructions and am going to ruin the survey results for everyone:1 0.005 None:1 0.005 CalibrationQuestions: ProbabilityQuestions: : Please give the obvious answer to this question, so I can automatically throw away all surveys that don't follow the rules: What is the probability of a fair coin coming up heads? : Sum:9151.0 Mean:49.464864864864865 Median:50.0 Mode:50.0 What is the probability that the Many Worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics is more or less correct?: Sum:5991.620000000001 Mean:39.67960264900662 Median:35.0 Mode:50.0 What is the probability that non-human, non-Earthly intelligent life exists in the observable universe?: Sum:12921.747799998799 Mean:75.56577660818012 Median:90.0 Mode:99.0 ...in the Milky Way galaxy?: Sum:7507.993100020101 Mean:45.78044573182988 Median:50.0 Mode:1.0 What is the probability that supernatural events (including God, ghosts, magic, etc) have occurred since the beginning of the universe?: Sum:1184.8703610023 Mean:10.393599657914912 Median:1.0 Mode:1.0 What is the probability that there is a god, defined as a supernatural intelligent entity who created the universe?: Sum:1585.2309423005 Mean:12.288611955817828 Median:1.0 Mode:1.0 What is the probability that any of humankind's revealed religions is more or less correct?: Sum:704.0791257113999 Mean:7.040791257114 Median:0.1 Mode:1.0 What is the probability that an average person cryonically frozen today will be successfully restored to life at some future time, conditional on no global catastrophe destroying civilization before then?: Sum:3405.525201 Mean:20.892792644171777 Median:8.0 Mode:5.0 What is the probability that at least one person living at this moment will reach an age of one thousand years, conditional on no global catastrophe destroying civilization in that time?: Sum:3844.3632010001015 Mean:24.48638981528726 Median:10.0 Mode:1.0 What is the probability that our universe is a simulation?: Sum:3503.2504000101994 Mean:23.67061081087973 Median:10.0 Mode:50.0 What is the probability that significant global warming is occurring or will soon occur, and is primarily caused by human actions?: Sum:14937.119999999997 Mean:86.34173410404625 Median:95.0 Mode:90.0 What is the probability that the human race will make it to 2100 without any catastrophe that wipes out more than 90% of humanity?: Sum:12575.879899999998 Mean:73.54315730994152 Median:80.0 Mode:80.0 Are you signed up for cryonics?: Yes - signed up or just finishing up paperwork:6 0.03 No - would like to sign up but unavailable in my area:14 0.071 No - would like to sign up but haven't gotten around to it:16 0.081 No - would like to sign up but can't afford it:29 0.146 No - still considering it:53 0.268 No - and do not want to sign up for cryonics:51 0.258 Never thought about it / don't understand:16 0.081 None:13 0.066 Do you think cryonics, as currently practiced by Alcor/Cryonics Institute will work?: Yes:15 0.076 Maybe:115 0.581 No:52 0.263 None:16 0.081 Do you think cryonics works in principle?: Yes:80 0.404 Maybe:84 0.424 No:16 0.081 None:18 0.091 Singularity (Section Header): By what year do you think the Singularity will occur? Answer such that you think, conditional on the Singularity occurring, there is an even chance of the Singularity falling before or after this year. If you think a singularity is so unlikely you don't even want to condition on it, leave this question blank.: Sum:309733.0 Mean:2150.9236111111113 Median:2075.0 Mode:2100.0 Have you ever made any kind of personal health change with the goal of living to see the singularity? (If multiple please separate with commas.): Superbabies (Section Header): Would you ever consider having your child genetically modified for any reason?: Yes:172 0.869 No:8 0.04 N/A:18 0.091 Would you be willing to have your child genetically modified to prevent them from getting an inheritable disease?: Yes:156 0.788 Depends on the disease:21 0.106 No:3 0.015 None:18 0.091 Would you be willing to have your child genetically modified for improvement purposes? (eg. To heighten their intelligence or reduce their risk of schizophrenia.): Yes :0 0.0 Maybe a little:18 0.091 Depends on the strength of the improvements:34 0.172 No:7 0.035 None:20 0.101 Would you be willing to have your child genetically modified for cosmetic reasons? (eg. To make them taller or have a certain eye color.): Yes:49 0.247 Maybe a little:32 0.162 Depends on the strength of the improvements:35 0.177 No:63 0.318 None:19 0.096 What's your overall opinion of other people genetically modifying their children for disease prevention purposes?: Positive:137 0.692 Mostly Positive:34 0.172 No strong opinion:9 0.045 Mostly Negative:4 0.02 Negative:0 0.0 None:14 0.071 What's your overall opinion of other people genetically modifying their children for improvement purposes?: Positive:77 0.389 Mostly Positive:59 0.298 No strong opinion:33 0.167 Mostly Negative:11 0.056 Negative:2 0.01 None:16 0.081 What's your overall opinion of other people genetically modifying their children for cosmetic reasons?: Positive:25 0.126 Mostly Positive:34 0.172 No strong opinion:60 0.303 Mostly Negative:45 0.227 Negative:20 0.101 None:14 0.071 Do you think the Luddite's Fallacy is an actual fallacy?: Yes:42 0.212 No:114 0.576 N/A:42 0.212 By what year do you think the majority of people in your country will have trouble finding employment for automation related reasons? If you think this is something that will never happen leave this question blank.: Sum:258789.0 Mean:2070.312 Median:2050.0 Mode:2050.0 Do you think the "end of work" would be a good thing?: Yes:142 0.717 No:28 0.141 N/A:28 0.141 If machines end all or almost all employment, what are your biggest worries? Pick two.: People will just idle about in destructive ways: Yes:54 0.2727272727272727 No:133 0.6717171717171717 N/A:11 0.05555555555555555 People need work to be fulfilled and if we eliminate work we'll all feel deep existential angst: Yes:52 0.26262626262626265 No:135 0.6818181818181818 N/A:11 0.05555555555555555 The rich are going to take all the resources for themselves and leave the rest of us to starve or live in poverty: Yes:131 0.6616161616161617 No:56 0.2828282828282828 N/A:11 0.05555555555555555 The machines won't need us, and we'll starve to death or be otherwise liquidated: Yes:42 0.21212121212121213 No:145 0.7323232323232324 N/A:11 0.05555555555555555 Other: Yes:0 0.0 No:0 0.0 N/A:0 0.0 Which disaster do you think is most likely to wipe out greater than 90% of humanity before the year 2100?: Nuclear war:34 0.172 Asteroid strike:7 0.035 Unfriendly AI:31 0.157 Nanotech / grey goo:1 0.005 Pandemic (natural):11 0.056 Pandemic (bioengineered):56 0.283 Environmental collapse (including global warming):23 0.116 Economic / political collapse:11 0.056 Other:3 0.015151515151515152 None:20 0.101 GROUP_3 BRIER SCORE INTERVAL: 0.18407653720018768 SAMPLE SIZE: 711 On a scale of one to five (where one is "Strongly disagree" and five is "Strongly agree"), rate how much you agree with this statement: "MIRI's mission of doing mathematical research relevant to friendly self-improving artificial intelligence is very important.": 1.0: 28 0.03938115330520394 2.0: 72 0.10126582278481013 3.0: 146 0.20534458509142053 4.0: 222 0.31223628691983124 5.0: 203 0.28551336146272854 5.0: 40 0.05625879043600562 On a scale of one to five (where one is "Strongly disagree" and five is "Strongly agree"), rate how much you agree with this statement: "Whether or not I agree with MIRI's goals, I believe MIRI is a well-run organization that pursues its goals effectively.": 1.0: 32 0.0450070323488045 2.0: 90 0.12658227848101267 3.0: 308 0.43319268635724334 4.0: 130 0.1828410689170183 5.0: 50 0.07032348804500703 5.0: 101 0.1420534458509142 Do you know what the Center For Applied Rationality is?: Yes:497 0.699 No but I've heard of it:126 0.177 No:72 0.101 None:16 0.023 Have you attended CFAR?: No, and I don't plan to:350 0.492 No, and I would like to:283 0.398 I have attended a paid or volunteer program with CFAR:39 0.055 I have led a program at CFAR:2 0.003 None:37 0.052What's your overall opinion of the Center For Applied Rationality?
: Positive:151 0.212 Mostly Positive:162 0.228 No strong opinion:324 0.456 Mostly Negative:26 0.037 Negative:5 0.007 None:43 0.06 Do you know what Effective Altruism is?: Yes:626 0.88 No but I've heard of it:49 0.069 No:25 0.035 None:11 0.015 Do you self-identify as an Effective Altruist?: Yes:271 0.381 No:408 0.574 N/A:32 0.045 Do you participate in the Effective Altruism community?: Yes:123 0.173 No:562 0.79 N/A:26 0.037 Has Effective Altruism caused you to make donations you otherwise wouldn't?: Yes:252 0.354 No:431 0.606 N/A:28 0.039 Have you ever had any kind of moral anxiety over Effective Altruism?: Yes:190 0.267 Yes but only because I worry about everything:74 0.104 No:419 0.589 None:28 0.039 What's your overall opinion of Effective Altruism?: Positive:345 0.485 Mostly Positive:203 0.286 No strong opinion:98 0.138 Mostly Negative:32 0.045 Negative:6 0.008 None:27 0.038 With which of these political positions do you most identify?: Progressive:92 0.129 Communist:8 0.011 Socialist:44 0.062 Conservative:10 0.014 Fascist:3 0.004 Neoreactionary:13 0.018 Social Democrat:88 0.124 Moderate:20 0.028 Pragmatist:58 0.082 Anarchist:17 0.024 Libertarian:89 0.125 Left-Libertarian:95 0.134 Objectivist:3 0.004 Monarchist:1 0.001 Futarchist:18 0.025 Totalitarian:1 0.001 Other:44 0.06188466947960619 None:103 0.145 Did you vote in your country's last major national election?: Yes:459 0.646 No:212 0.298 My country does not hold elections:3 0.004 None:37 0.052 If you are an American, what party are you registered with?: Democratic Party:133 0.187 Republican Party:23 0.032 Libertarian Party:9 0.013 Other third party:7 0.01 Not registered for a party:164 0.231 (option for non-Americans who want an option):243 0.342 None:132 0.186 On a scale from 1 (not interested at all) to 5 (extremely interested), how would you describe your level of interest in politics?: 1.0: 37 0.052039381153305204 2.0: 104 0.14627285513361463 3.0: 183 0.25738396624472576 4.0: 237 0.3333333333333333 5.0: 130 0.1828410689170183 5.0: 20 0.02812939521800281 How would you describe your opinion on abortion laws?: Abortion: Pro-Life:41 0.057665260196905765 Lean Pro-Life:40 0.05625879043600562 No strong opinion:31 0.04360056258790436 Lean Pro-Choice:112 0.15752461322081576 Pro-Choice:466 0.6554149085794655 None:21 0.029535864978902954 How would you describe your opinion on immigration?: Immigration: Should be more open:281 0.3952180028129395 Lean more open:208 0.29254571026722925 No strong opinion:109 0.15330520393811534 Lean more restricted:48 0.06751054852320675 Should be more restricted:41 0.057665260196905765 None:24 0.03375527426160337 How would you describe your opinion on taxes in your country?: Taxes: Should be lower:93 0.1308016877637131 Lean towards lower:95 0.13361462728551335 No strong opinion:228 0.3206751054852321 Lean towards higher:173 0.24331926863572434 Should be higher:96 0.1350210970464135 None:26 0.03656821378340366 How would you describe your opinion on minimum wage laws in your country?: Minimum Wage: Should be lower or eliminated:117 0.16455696202531644 Lean towards lower or eliminated:87 0.12236286919831224 No strong opinion:223 0.3136427566807314 Lean towards higher:147 0.20675105485232068 Should be higher:110 0.15471167369901548 None:27 0.0379746835443038 How would you describe your opinion of feminism, as you understand the term? See also http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Feminism for more information: Feminism: Very unfavorable:59 0.0829817158931083 Unfavorable:98 0.13783403656821377 No strong opinion:104 0.14627285513361463 Favorable:263 0.369901547116737 Very favorable:161 0.22644163150492264 None:26 0.03656821378340366 How would you describe your opinion of social justice, as you understand the term? See also http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_justice for more information: Social Justice: Very unfavorable:135 0.189873417721519 Unfavorable:147 0.20675105485232068 No strong opinion:119 0.16736990154711673 Favorable:190 0.2672292545710267 Very favorable:88 0.12376933895921238 None:32 0.0450070323488045 How would you describe your opinion of the idea of "human biodiversity", as you understand the term? No Wiki page available, but essentially it is the belief that there are important genetic differences between human populations and that therefore ideas generally considered racist, such as different races having different average intelligence or personality traits, are in fact scientifically justified: Human Biodiversity: Very unfavorable:87 0.12236286919831224 Unfavorable:147 0.20675105485232068 No strong opinion:218 0.3066104078762307 Favorable:174 0.24472573839662448 Very favorable:47 0.06610407876230662 None:38 0.053445850914205346 How would you describe your opinion of a Basic Income Guarantee in your country? See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_Income_Guarantee for more information.: Basic Income: Strongly oppose:28 0.03938115330520394 Oppose:43 0.06047819971870605 No strong opinion:113 0.1589310829817159 Support:238 0.33473980309423346 Strongly support:258 0.3628691983122363 None:31 0.04360056258790436 Do you believe we are currently in or entering a "Great Stagnation", as proposed by Tyler Cowen and Peter Thiel, during which technological growth slows drastically? See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Great_Stagnation for more information: Great Stagnation: Strongly doubt:118 0.1659634317862166 Doubt:260 0.3656821378340366 No strong opinion:218 0.3066104078762307 Believe:58 0.08157524613220815 Strongly believe:11 0.015471167369901548 None:46 0.06469760900140648 Do you understand the instructions above?: Yes, I understand I should answer in percentages between 0 and 100:687 0.966 No, I don't read instructions and am going to ruin the survey results for everyone:13 0.018 None:11 0.015 CalibrationQuestions: ProbabilityQuestions: : Please give the obvious answer to this question, so I can automatically throw away all surveys that don't follow the rules: What is the probability of a fair coin coming up heads? : Sum:34201.4999999 Mean:49.92919708014598 Median:50.0 Mode:50.0 What is the probability that the Many Worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics is more or less correct?: Sum:24985.996333233295 Mean:45.01981321303297 Median:50.0 Mode:50.0 What is the probability that non-human, non-Earthly intelligent life exists in the observable universe?: Sum:47148.3974788982 Mean:76.04580238531967 Median:90.0 Mode:99.0 ...in the Milky Way galaxy?: Sum:27055.8421221492 Mean:45.70243601714392 Median:50.0 Mode:10.0 What is the probability that supernatural events (including God, ghosts, magic, etc) have occurred since the beginning of the universe?: Sum:4915.0185431254085 Mean:12.2875463578135 Median:1.0 Mode:1.0 What is the probability that there is a god, defined as a supernatural intelligent entity who created the universe?: Sum:6542.093824414412 Mean:15.429466567015094 Median:1.0 Mode:1.0 What is the probability that any of humankind's revealed religions is more or less correct?: Sum:3371.642448974405 Mean:9.716548844306628 Median:0.3 Mode:1.0 What is the probability that an average person cryonically frozen today will be successfully restored to life at some future time, conditional on no global catastrophe destroying civilization before then?: Sum:13359.863270506808 Mean:22.266438784178 Median:10.0 Mode:5.0 What is the probability that at least one person living at this moment will reach an age of one thousand years, conditional on no global catastrophe destroying civilization in that time?: Sum:15879.272421200307 Mean:26.68785280874 Median:10.0 Mode:5.0 What is the probability that our universe is a simulation?: Sum:12967.361241302211 Mean:25.277507292986744 Median:10.0 Mode:50.0 What is the probability that significant global warming is occurring or will soon occur, and is primarily caused by human actions?: Sum:53155.04690000001 Mean:84.1060868670886 Median:95.0 Mode:95.0 What is the probability that the human race will make it to 2100 without any catastrophe that wipes out more than 90% of humanity?: Sum:48271.17709800001 Mean:76.62091602857143 Median:80.0 Mode:80.0 Are you signed up for cryonics?: Yes - signed up or just finishing up paperwork:15 0.021 No - would like to sign up but unavailable in my area:55 0.077 No - would like to sign up but haven't gotten around to it:72 0.101 No - would like to sign up but can't afford it:97 0.136 No - still considering it:249 0.35 No - and do not want to sign up for cryonics:178 0.25 Never thought about it / don't understand:25 0.035 None:20 0.028 Do you think cryonics, as currently practiced by Alcor/Cryonics Institute will work?: Yes:48 0.068 Maybe:453 0.637 No:173 0.243 None:37 0.052 Do you think cryonics works in principle?: Yes:356 0.501 Maybe:296 0.416 No:31 0.044 None:28 0.039 Singularity (Section Header): By what year do you think the Singularity will occur? Answer such that you think, conditional on the Singularity occurring, there is an even chance of the Singularity falling before or after this year. If you think a singularity is so unlikely you don't even want to condition on it, leave this question blank.: Sum:10001287082.0001 Mean:18418576.57826906 Median:2080.0 Mode:2100.0 Have you ever made any kind of personal health change with the goal of living to see the singularity? (If multiple please separate with commas.): Superbabies (Section Header): Would you ever consider having your child genetically modified for any reason?: Yes:656 0.923 No:22 0.031 N/A:33 0.046 Would you be willing to have your child genetically modified to prevent them from getting an inheritable disease?: Yes:587 0.826 Depends on the disease:86 0.121 No:9 0.013 None:29 0.041 Would you be willing to have your child genetically modified for improvement purposes? (eg. To heighten their intelligence or reduce their risk of schizophrenia.): Yes :0 0.0 Maybe a little:64 0.09 Depends on the strength of the improvements:103 0.145 No:31 0.044 None:32 0.045 Would you be willing to have your child genetically modified for cosmetic reasons? (eg. To make them taller or have a certain eye color.): Yes:210 0.295 Maybe a little:164 0.231 Depends on the strength of the improvements:137 0.193 No:166 0.233 None:34 0.048 What's your overall opinion of other people genetically modifying their children for disease prevention purposes?: Positive:510 0.717 Mostly Positive:120 0.169 No strong opinion:42 0.059 Mostly Negative:6 0.008 Negative:6 0.008 None:27 0.038 What's your overall opinion of other people genetically modifying their children for improvement purposes?: Positive:320 0.45 Mostly Positive:203 0.286 No strong opinion:108 0.152 Mostly Negative:41 0.058 Negative:15 0.021 None:24 0.034 What's your overall opinion of other people genetically modifying their children for cosmetic reasons?: Positive:125 0.176 Mostly Positive:116 0.163 No strong opinion:266 0.374 Mostly Negative:128 0.18 Negative:49 0.069 None:27 0.038 Do you think the Luddite's Fallacy is an actual fallacy?: Yes:194 0.273 No:416 0.585 N/A:101 0.142 By what year do you think the majority of people in your country will have trouble finding employment for automation related reasons? If you think this is something that will never happen leave this question blank.: Sum:970318.0 Mean:2141.98233995585 Median:2050.0 Mode:2050.0 Do you think the "end of work" would be a good thing?: Yes:522 0.734 No:117 0.165 N/A:72 0.101 If machines end all or almost all employment, what are your biggest worries? Pick two.: People will just idle about in destructive ways: Yes:211 0.2967651195499297 No:480 0.6751054852320675 N/A:20 0.02812939521800281 People need work to be fulfilled and if we eliminate work we'll all feel deep existential angst: Yes:216 0.3037974683544304 No:475 0.6680731364275668 N/A:20 0.02812939521800281 The rich are going to take all the resources for themselves and leave the rest of us to starve or live in poverty: Yes:447 0.6286919831223629 No:244 0.3431786216596343 N/A:20 0.02812939521800281 The machines won't need us, and we'll starve to death or be otherwise liquidated: Yes:190 0.2672292545710267 No:501 0.7046413502109705 N/A:20 0.02812939521800281 Other: Yes:0 0.0 No:0 0.0 N/A:0 0.0 Which disaster do you think is most likely to wipe out greater than 90% of humanity before the year 2100?: Nuclear war:139 0.195 Asteroid strike:23 0.032 Unfriendly AI:119 0.167 Nanotech / grey goo:8 0.011 Pandemic (natural):53 0.075 Pandemic (bioengineered):144 0.203 Environmental collapse (including global warming):108 0.152 Economic / political collapse:55 0.077 Other:15 0.02109704641350211 None:46 0.065 GROUP_4 BRIER SCORE INTERVAL: 0.2941195897714166 SAMPLE SIZE: 504 On a scale of one to five (where one is "Strongly disagree" and five is "Strongly agree"), rate how much you agree with this statement: "MIRI's mission of doing mathematical research relevant to friendly self-improving artificial intelligence is very important.": 1.0: 31 0.061507936507936505 2.0: 64 0.12698412698412698 3.0: 105 0.20833333333333334 4.0: 134 0.26587301587301587 5.0: 155 0.30753968253968256 5.0: 15 0.02976190476190476 On a scale of one to five (where one is "Strongly disagree" and five is "Strongly agree"), rate how much you agree with this statement: "Whether or not I agree with MIRI's goals, I believe MIRI is a well-run organization that pursues its goals effectively.": 1.0: 34 0.06746031746031746 2.0: 67 0.13293650793650794 3.0: 214 0.4246031746031746 4.0: 101 0.2003968253968254 5.0: 29 0.057539682539682536 5.0: 59 0.11706349206349206 Do you know what the Center For Applied Rationality is?: Yes:374 0.742 No but I've heard of it:80 0.159 No:42 0.083 None:8 0.016 Have you attended CFAR?: No, and I don't plan to:237 0.47 No, and I would like to:217 0.431 I have attended a paid or volunteer program with CFAR:31 0.062 I have led a program at CFAR:3 0.006 None:16 0.032What's your overall opinion of the Center For Applied Rationality?
: Positive:116 0.23 Mostly Positive:122 0.242 No strong opinion:219 0.435 Mostly Negative:17 0.034 Negative:5 0.01 None:25 0.05 Do you know what Effective Altruism is?: Yes:455 0.903 No but I've heard of it:26 0.052 No:18 0.036 None:5 0.01 Do you self-identify as an Effective Altruist?: Yes:193 0.383 No:296 0.587 N/A:15 0.03 Do you participate in the Effective Altruism community?: Yes:88 0.175 No:400 0.794 N/A:16 0.032 Has Effective Altruism caused you to make donations you otherwise wouldn't?: Yes:195 0.387 No:291 0.577 N/A:18 0.036 Have you ever had any kind of moral anxiety over Effective Altruism?: Yes:162 0.321 Yes but only because I worry about everything:58 0.115 No:269 0.534 None:15 0.03 What's your overall opinion of Effective Altruism?: Positive:225 0.446 Mostly Positive:166 0.329 No strong opinion:74 0.147 Mostly Negative:16 0.032 Negative:8 0.016 None:15 0.03 With which of these political positions do you most identify?: Progressive:62 0.123 Communist:1 0.002 Socialist:35 0.069 Conservative:12 0.024 Fascist:2 0.004 Neoreactionary:9 0.018 Social Democrat:71 0.141 Moderate:23 0.046 Pragmatist:33 0.065 Anarchist:12 0.024 Libertarian:58 0.115 Left-Libertarian:81 0.161 Objectivist:4 0.008 Monarchist:3 0.006 Futarchist:6 0.012 Totalitarian:1 0.002 Other:30 0.05952380952380952 None:60 0.119 Did you vote in your country's last major national election?: Yes:338 0.671 No:136 0.27 My country does not hold elections:2 0.004 None:28 0.056 If you are an American, what party are you registered with?: Democratic Party:131 0.26 Republican Party:29 0.058 Libertarian Party:11 0.022 Other third party:6 0.012 Not registered for a party:152 0.302 (option for non-Americans who want an option):105 0.208 None:70 0.139 On a scale from 1 (not interested at all) to 5 (extremely interested), how would you describe your level of interest in politics?: 1.0: 13 0.025793650793650792 2.0: 69 0.13690476190476192 3.0: 130 0.25793650793650796 4.0: 175 0.3472222222222222 5.0: 93 0.18452380952380953 5.0: 24 0.047619047619047616 How would you describe your opinion on abortion laws?: Abortion: Pro-Life:29 0.057539682539682536 Lean Pro-Life:33 0.06547619047619048 No strong opinion:24 0.047619047619047616 Lean Pro-Choice:74 0.14682539682539683 Pro-Choice:323 0.6408730158730159 None:21 0.041666666666666664 How would you describe your opinion on immigration?: Immigration: Should be more open:186 0.36904761904761907 Lean more open:150 0.2976190476190476 No strong opinion:61 0.12103174603174603 Lean more restricted:48 0.09523809523809523 Should be more restricted:34 0.06746031746031746 None:25 0.0496031746031746 How would you describe your opinion on taxes in your country?: Taxes: Should be lower:70 0.1388888888888889 Lean towards lower:69 0.13690476190476192 No strong opinion:142 0.28174603174603174 Lean towards higher:116 0.23015873015873015 Should be higher:83 0.16468253968253968 None:24 0.047619047619047616 How would you describe your opinion on minimum wage laws in your country?: Minimum Wage: Should be lower or eliminated:96 0.19047619047619047 Lean towards lower or eliminated:68 0.1349206349206349 No strong opinion:123 0.24404761904761904 Lean towards higher:110 0.21825396825396826 Should be higher:79 0.15674603174603174 None:28 0.05555555555555555 How would you describe your opinion of feminism, as you understand the term? See also http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Feminism for more information: Feminism: Very unfavorable:48 0.09523809523809523 Unfavorable:78 0.15476190476190477 No strong opinion:65 0.12896825396825398 Favorable:163 0.32341269841269843 Very favorable:123 0.24404761904761904 None:27 0.05357142857142857 How would you describe your opinion of social justice, as you understand the term? See also http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_justice for more information: Social Justice: Very unfavorable:103 0.20436507936507936 Unfavorable:114 0.2261904761904762 No strong opinion:77 0.1527777777777778 Favorable:126 0.25 Very favorable:55 0.10912698412698413 None:29 0.057539682539682536 How would you describe your opinion of the idea of "human biodiversity", as you understand the term? No Wiki page available, but essentially it is the belief that there are important genetic differences between human populations and that therefore ideas generally considered racist, such as different races having different average intelligence or personality traits, are in fact scientifically justified: Human Biodiversity: Very unfavorable:74 0.14682539682539683 Unfavorable:113 0.22420634920634921 No strong opinion:140 0.2777777777777778 Favorable:102 0.20238095238095238 Very favorable:46 0.09126984126984126 None:29 0.057539682539682536 How would you describe your opinion of a Basic Income Guarantee in your country? See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_Income_Guarantee for more information.: Basic Income: Strongly oppose:18 0.03571428571428571 Oppose:28 0.05555555555555555 No strong opinion:76 0.15079365079365079 Support:172 0.3412698412698413 Strongly support:185 0.36706349206349204 None:25 0.0496031746031746 Do you believe we are currently in or entering a "Great Stagnation", as proposed by Tyler Cowen and Peter Thiel, during which technological growth slows drastically? See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Great_Stagnation for more information: Great Stagnation: Strongly doubt:68 0.1349206349206349 Doubt:171 0.3392857142857143 No strong opinion:179 0.3551587301587302 Believe:46 0.09126984126984126 Strongly believe:8 0.015873015873015872 None:32 0.06349206349206349 Do you understand the instructions above?: Yes, I understand I should answer in percentages between 0 and 100:494 0.98 No, I don't read instructions and am going to ruin the survey results for everyone:8 0.016 None:2 0.004 CalibrationQuestions: ProbabilityQuestions: : Please give the obvious answer to this question, so I can automatically throw away all surveys that don't follow the rules: What is the probability of a fair coin coming up heads? : Sum:24201.0 Mean:49.7962962962963 Median:50.0 Mode:50.0 What is the probability that the Many Worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics is more or less correct?: Sum:17046.76021 Mean:43.70964156410256 Median:50.0 Mode:50.0 What is the probability that non-human, non-Earthly intelligent life exists in the observable universe?: Sum:32822.23449888751 Mean:75.80192724916282 Median:90.0 Mode:99.0 ...in the Milky Way galaxy?: Sum:19397.3760631002 Mean:46.96701225932252 Median:40.0 Mode:10.0 What is the probability that supernatural events (including God, ghosts, magic, etc) have occurred since the beginning of the universe?: Sum:4344.230233023203 Mean:15.242913098327016 Median:1.0 Mode:1.0 What is the probability that there is a god, defined as a supernatural intelligent entity who created the universe?: Sum:4835.205583313403 Mean:15.853133060043934 Median:1.0 Mode:1.0 What is the probability that any of humankind's revealed religions is more or less correct?: Sum:3242.0323806153015 Mean:13.125637168482996 Median:1.0 Mode:1.0 What is the probability that an average person cryonically frozen today will be successfully restored to life at some future time, conditional on no global catastrophe destroying civilization before then?: Sum:8158.501521400104 Mean:19.287237639243735 Median:10.0 Mode:10.0 What is the probability that at least one person living at this moment will reach an age of one thousand years, conditional on no global catastrophe destroying civilization in that time?: Sum:9244.396120241305 Mean:22.437854660779852 Median:10.0 Mode:1.0 What is the probability that our universe is a simulation?: Sum:8446.698531011501 Mean:23.205215744537085 Median:10.0 Mode:1.0 What is the probability that significant global warming is occurring or will soon occur, and is primarily caused by human actions?: Sum:36087.927099899905 Mean:81.83203424013583 Median:90.0 Mode:90.0 What is the probability that the human race will make it to 2100 without any catastrophe that wipes out more than 90% of humanity?: Sum:33798.158698999905 Mean:76.29381196162505 Median:85.0 Mode:90.0 Are you signed up for cryonics?: Yes - signed up or just finishing up paperwork:22 0.044 No - would like to sign up but unavailable in my area:19 0.038 No - would like to sign up but haven't gotten around to it:58 0.115 No - would like to sign up but can't afford it:60 0.119 No - still considering it:158 0.313 No - and do not want to sign up for cryonics:147 0.292 Never thought about it / don't understand:23 0.046 None:17 0.034 Do you think cryonics, as currently practiced by Alcor/Cryonics Institute will work?: Yes:20 0.04 Maybe:308 0.611 No:147 0.292 None:29 0.058 Do you think cryonics works in principle?: Yes:237 0.47 Maybe:198 0.393 No:45 0.089 None:24 0.048 Singularity (Section Header): By what year do you think the Singularity will occur? Answer such that you think, conditional on the Singularity occurring, there is an even chance of the Singularity falling before or after this year. If you think a singularity is so unlikely you don't even want to condition on it, leave this question blank.: Sum:-4098959824.0 Mean:-11611784.203966005 Median:2080.0 Mode:2100.0 Have you ever made any kind of personal health change with the goal of living to see the singularity? (If multiple please separate with commas.): Superbabies (Section Header): Would you ever consider having your child genetically modified for any reason?: Yes:456 0.905 No:24 0.048 N/A:24 0.048 Would you be willing to have your child genetically modified to prevent them from getting an inheritable disease?: Yes:404 0.802 Depends on the disease:64 0.127 No:12 0.024 None:24 0.048 Would you be willing to have your child genetically modified for improvement purposes? (eg. To heighten their intelligence or reduce their risk of schizophrenia.): Yes :0 0.0 Maybe a little:61 0.121 Depends on the strength of the improvements:79 0.157 No:29 0.058 None:23 0.046 Would you be willing to have your child genetically modified for cosmetic reasons? (eg. To make them taller or have a certain eye color.): Yes:152 0.302 Maybe a little:120 0.238 Depends on the strength of the improvements:64 0.127 No:141 0.28 None:27 0.054 What's your overall opinion of other people genetically modifying their children for disease prevention purposes?: Positive:334 0.663 Mostly Positive:94 0.187 No strong opinion:38 0.075 Mostly Negative:14 0.028 Negative:6 0.012 None:18 0.036 What's your overall opinion of other people genetically modifying their children for improvement purposes?: Positive:209 0.415 Mostly Positive:143 0.284 No strong opinion:80 0.159 Mostly Negative:38 0.075 Negative:15 0.03 None:19 0.038 What's your overall opinion of other people genetically modifying their children for cosmetic reasons?: Positive:80 0.159 Mostly Positive:91 0.181 No strong opinion:158 0.313 Mostly Negative:101 0.2 Negative:57 0.113 None:17 0.034 Do you think the Luddite's Fallacy is an actual fallacy?: Yes:130 0.258 No:300 0.595 N/A:74 0.147 By what year do you think the majority of people in your country will have trouble finding employment for automation related reasons? If you think this is something that will never happen leave this question blank.: Sum:642844.0 Mean:2073.690322580645 Median:2050.0 Mode:2050.0 Do you think the "end of work" would be a good thing?: Yes:365 0.724 No:88 0.175 N/A:51 0.101 If machines end all or almost all employment, what are your biggest worries? Pick two.: People will just idle about in destructive ways: Yes:147 0.2916666666666667 No:341 0.6765873015873016 N/A:16 0.031746031746031744 People need work to be fulfilled and if we eliminate work we'll all feel deep existential angst: Yes:175 0.3472222222222222 No:313 0.621031746031746 N/A:16 0.031746031746031744 The rich are going to take all the resources for themselves and leave the rest of us to starve or live in poverty: Yes:318 0.6309523809523809 No:170 0.3373015873015873 N/A:16 0.031746031746031744 The machines won't need us, and we'll starve to death or be otherwise liquidated: Yes:114 0.2261904761904762 No:374 0.7420634920634921 N/A:16 0.031746031746031744 Other: Yes:0 0.0 No:0 0.0 N/A:0 0.0 Which disaster do you think is most likely to wipe out greater than 90% of humanity before the year 2100?: Nuclear war:92 0.183 Asteroid strike:20 0.04 Unfriendly AI:87 0.173 Nanotech / grey goo:2 0.004 Pandemic (natural):27 0.054 Pandemic (bioengineered):102 0.202 Environmental collapse (including global warming):77 0.153 Economic / political collapse:49 0.097 Other:12 0.023809523809523808 None:36 0.071 GROUP_5 BRIER SCORE INTERVAL: 0.4041626423426456 SAMPLE SIZE: 147 On a scale of one to five (where one is "Strongly disagree" and five is "Strongly agree"), rate how much you agree with this statement: "MIRI's mission of doing mathematical research relevant to friendly self-improving artificial intelligence is very important.": 1.0: 9 0.061224489795918366 2.0: 19 0.1292517006802721 3.0: 25 0.17006802721088435 4.0: 40 0.272108843537415 5.0: 36 0.24489795918367346 5.0: 18 0.12244897959183673 On a scale of one to five (where one is "Strongly disagree" and five is "Strongly agree"), rate how much you agree with this statement: "Whether or not I agree with MIRI's goals, I believe MIRI is a well-run organization that pursues its goals effectively.": 1.0: 6 0.04081632653061224 2.0: 21 0.14285714285714285 3.0: 73 0.4965986394557823 4.0: 16 0.10884353741496598 5.0: 7 0.047619047619047616 5.0: 24 0.16326530612244897 Do you know what the Center For Applied Rationality is?: Yes:107 0.728 No but I've heard of it:19 0.129 No:15 0.102 None:6 0.041 Have you attended CFAR?: No, and I don't plan to:63 0.429 No, and I would like to:56 0.381 I have attended a paid or volunteer program with CFAR:17 0.116 I have led a program at CFAR:1 0.007 None:10 0.068What's your overall opinion of the Center For Applied Rationality?
: Positive:31 0.211 Mostly Positive:38 0.259 No strong opinion:61 0.415 Mostly Negative:3 0.02 Negative:0 0.0 None:14 0.095 Do you know what Effective Altruism is?: Yes:128 0.871 No but I've heard of it:7 0.048 No:9 0.061 None:3 0.02 Do you self-identify as an Effective Altruist?: Yes:48 0.327 No:89 0.605 N/A:10 0.068 Do you participate in the Effective Altruism community?: Yes:28 0.19 No:112 0.762 N/A:7 0.048 Has Effective Altruism caused you to make donations you otherwise wouldn't?: Yes:51 0.347 No:89 0.605 N/A:7 0.048 Have you ever had any kind of moral anxiety over Effective Altruism?: Yes:44 0.299 Yes but only because I worry about everything:12 0.082 No:82 0.558 None:9 0.061 What's your overall opinion of Effective Altruism?: Positive:65 0.442 Mostly Positive:41 0.279 No strong opinion:21 0.143 Mostly Negative:7 0.048 Negative:5 0.034 None:8 0.054 With which of these political positions do you most identify?: Progressive:15 0.102 Communist:1 0.007 Socialist:11 0.075 Conservative:2 0.014 Fascist:0 0.0 Neoreactionary:2 0.014 Social Democrat:22 0.15 Moderate:8 0.054 Pragmatist:14 0.095 Anarchist:6 0.041 Libertarian:12 0.082 Left-Libertarian:22 0.15 Objectivist:1 0.007 Monarchist:0 0.0 Futarchist:1 0.007 Totalitarian:0 0.0 Other:11 0.07482993197278912 None:19 0.129 Did you vote in your country's last major national election?: Yes:97 0.66 No:44 0.299 My country does not hold elections:0 0.0 None:6 0.041 If you are an American, what party are you registered with?: Democratic Party:41 0.279 Republican Party:5 0.034 Libertarian Party:5 0.034 Other third party:2 0.014 Not registered for a party:49 0.333 (option for non-Americans who want an option):29 0.197 None:16 0.109 On a scale from 1 (not interested at all) to 5 (extremely interested), how would you describe your level of interest in politics?: 1.0: 2 0.013605442176870748 2.0: 16 0.10884353741496598 3.0: 37 0.25170068027210885 4.0: 60 0.40816326530612246 5.0: 28 0.19047619047619047 5.0: 4 0.027210884353741496 How would you describe your opinion on abortion laws?: Abortion: Pro-Life:9 0.061224489795918366 Lean Pro-Life:10 0.06802721088435375 No strong opinion:6 0.04081632653061224 Lean Pro-Choice:30 0.20408163265306123 Pro-Choice:86 0.5850340136054422 None:6 0.04081632653061224 How would you describe your opinion on immigration?: Immigration: Should be more open:56 0.38095238095238093 Lean more open:45 0.30612244897959184 No strong opinion:24 0.16326530612244897 Lean more restricted:12 0.08163265306122448 Should be more restricted:4 0.027210884353741496 None:6 0.04081632653061224 How would you describe your opinion on taxes in your country?: Taxes: Should be lower:22 0.14965986394557823 Lean towards lower:17 0.11564625850340136 No strong opinion:39 0.2653061224489796 Lean towards higher:39 0.2653061224489796 Should be higher:24 0.16326530612244897 None:6 0.04081632653061224 How would you describe your opinion on minimum wage laws in your country?: Minimum Wage: Should be lower or eliminated:26 0.17687074829931973 Lean towards lower or eliminated:10 0.06802721088435375 No strong opinion:42 0.2857142857142857 Lean towards higher:31 0.2108843537414966 Should be higher:31 0.2108843537414966 None:7 0.047619047619047616 How would you describe your opinion of feminism, as you understand the term? See also http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Feminism for more information: Feminism: Very unfavorable:10 0.06802721088435375 Unfavorable:21 0.14285714285714285 No strong opinion:21 0.14285714285714285 Favorable:51 0.3469387755102041 Very favorable:37 0.25170068027210885 None:7 0.047619047619047616 How would you describe your opinion of social justice, as you understand the term? See also http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_justice for more information: Social Justice: Very unfavorable:26 0.17687074829931973 Unfavorable:37 0.25170068027210885 No strong opinion:17 0.11564625850340136 Favorable:42 0.2857142857142857 Very favorable:20 0.1360544217687075 None:5 0.034013605442176874 How would you describe your opinion of the idea of "human biodiversity", as you understand the term? No Wiki page available, but essentially it is the belief that there are important genetic differences between human populations and that therefore ideas generally considered racist, such as different races having different average intelligence or personality traits, are in fact scientifically justified: Human Biodiversity: Very unfavorable:14 0.09523809523809523 Unfavorable:42 0.2857142857142857 No strong opinion:46 0.3129251700680272 Favorable:31 0.2108843537414966 Very favorable:7 0.047619047619047616 None:7 0.047619047619047616 How would you describe your opinion of a Basic Income Guarantee in your country? See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_Income_Guarantee for more information.: Basic Income: Strongly oppose:6 0.04081632653061224 Oppose:13 0.08843537414965986 No strong opinion:19 0.1292517006802721 Support:58 0.3945578231292517 Strongly support:45 0.30612244897959184 None:6 0.04081632653061224 Do you believe we are currently in or entering a "Great Stagnation", as proposed by Tyler Cowen and Peter Thiel, during which technological growth slows drastically? See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Great_Stagnation for more information: Great Stagnation: Strongly doubt:22 0.14965986394557823 Doubt:57 0.3877551020408163 No strong opinion:47 0.3197278911564626 Believe:13 0.08843537414965986 Strongly believe:3 0.02040816326530612 None:5 0.034013605442176874 Do you understand the instructions above?: Yes, I understand I should answer in percentages between 0 and 100:143 0.973 No, I don't read instructions and am going to ruin the survey results for everyone:1 0.007 None:3 0.02 CalibrationQuestions: ProbabilityQuestions: : Please give the obvious answer to this question, so I can automatically throw away all surveys that don't follow the rules: What is the probability of a fair coin coming up heads? : Sum:6900.4999999995 Mean:49.64388489208273 Median:50.0 Mode:50.0 What is the probability that the Many Worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics is more or less correct?: Sum:5241.889999999999 Mean:46.38840707964602 Median:50.0 Mode:50.0 What is the probability that non-human, non-Earthly intelligent life exists in the observable universe?: Sum:9484.8099049898 Mean:76.49040245959516 Median:95.0 Mode:99.0 ...in the Milky Way galaxy?: Sum:6264.280999999999 Mean:54.002422413793106 Median:55.5 Mode:99.0 What is the probability that supernatural events (including God, ghosts, magic, etc) have occurred since the beginning of the universe?: Sum:1441.0553610100997 Mean:17.790806926050617 Median:2.0 Mode:1.0 What is the probability that there is a god, defined as a supernatural intelligent entity who created the universe?: Sum:1435.1834421009999 Mean:16.884511083541177 Median:1.0 Mode:1.0 What is the probability that any of humankind's revealed religions is more or less correct?: Sum:735.2693462313 Mean:10.656077481613044 Median:1.0 Mode:1.0 What is the probability that an average person cryonically frozen today will be successfully restored to life at some future time, conditional on no global catastrophe destroying civilization before then?: Sum:2075.6040000000003 Mean:18.699135135135133 Median:5.0 Mode:5.0 What is the probability that at least one person living at this moment will reach an age of one thousand years, conditional on no global catastrophe destroying civilization in that time?: Sum:2749.36201 Mean:24.99420009090909 Median:10.0 Mode:1.0 What is the probability that our universe is a simulation?: Sum:3486.4011111 Mean:33.52308760673077 Median:20.0 Mode:50.0 What is the probability that significant global warming is occurring or will soon occur, and is primarily caused by human actions?: Sum:10228.4899998 Mean:83.15845528292682 Median:92.0 Mode:90.0 What is the probability that the human race will make it to 2100 without any catastrophe that wipes out more than 90% of humanity?: Sum:9369.288857143 Mean:78.07740714285833 Median:80.0 Mode:80.0 Are you signed up for cryonics?: Yes - signed up or just finishing up paperwork:3 0.02 No - would like to sign up but unavailable in my area:3 0.02 No - would like to sign up but haven't gotten around to it:16 0.109 No - would like to sign up but can't afford it:21 0.143 No - still considering it:49 0.333 No - and do not want to sign up for cryonics:47 0.32 Never thought about it / don't understand:3 0.02 None:5 0.034 Do you think cryonics, as currently practiced by Alcor/Cryonics Institute will work?: Yes:5 0.034 Maybe:86 0.585 No:48 0.327 None:8 0.054 Do you think cryonics works in principle?: Yes:56 0.381 Maybe:65 0.442 No:17 0.116 None:9 0.061 Singularity (Section Header): By what year do you think the Singularity will occur? Answer such that you think, conditional on the Singularity occurring, there is an even chance of the Singularity falling before or after this year. If you think a singularity is so unlikely you don't even want to condition on it, leave this question blank.: Sum:211991.0 Mean:2141.3232323232323 Median:2090.0 Mode:2100.0 Have you ever made any kind of personal health change with the goal of living to see the singularity? (If multiple please separate with commas.): Superbabies (Section Header): Would you ever consider having your child genetically modified for any reason?: Yes:131 0.891 No:6 0.041 N/A:10 0.068 Would you be willing to have your child genetically modified to prevent them from getting an inheritable disease?: Yes:120 0.816 Depends on the disease:15 0.102 No:2 0.014 None:10 0.068 Would you be willing to have your child genetically modified for improvement purposes? (eg. To heighten their intelligence or reduce their risk of schizophrenia.): Yes :0 0.0 Maybe a little:17 0.116 Depends on the strength of the improvements:22 0.15 No:11 0.075 None:8 0.054 Would you be willing to have your child genetically modified for cosmetic reasons? (eg. To make them taller or have a certain eye color.): Yes:39 0.265 Maybe a little:35 0.238 Depends on the strength of the improvements:24 0.163 No:40 0.272 None:9 0.061 What's your overall opinion of other people genetically modifying their children for disease prevention purposes?: Positive:94 0.639 Mostly Positive:33 0.224 No strong opinion:10 0.068 Mostly Negative:3 0.02 Negative:0 0.0 None:7 0.048 What's your overall opinion of other people genetically modifying their children for improvement purposes?: Positive:65 0.442 Mostly Positive:35 0.238 No strong opinion:25 0.17 Mostly Negative:14 0.095 Negative:1 0.007 None:7 0.048 What's your overall opinion of other people genetically modifying their children for cosmetic reasons?: Positive:30 0.204 Mostly Positive:24 0.163 No strong opinion:41 0.279 Mostly Negative:28 0.19 Negative:17 0.116 None:7 0.048 Do you think the Luddite's Fallacy is an actual fallacy?: Yes:41 0.279 No:81 0.551 N/A:25 0.17 By what year do you think the majority of people in your country will have trouble finding employment for automation related reasons? If you think this is something that will never happen leave this question blank.: Sum:180507.0 Mean:2074.793103448276 Median:2050.0 Mode:2050.0 Do you think the "end of work" would be a good thing?: Yes:105 0.714 No:26 0.177 N/A:16 0.109 If machines end all or almost all employment, what are your biggest worries? Pick two.: People will just idle about in destructive ways: Yes:54 0.3673469387755102 No:87 0.5918367346938775 N/A:6 0.04081632653061224 People need work to be fulfilled and if we eliminate work we'll all feel deep existential angst: Yes:47 0.3197278911564626 No:94 0.6394557823129252 N/A:6 0.04081632653061224 The rich are going to take all the resources for themselves and leave the rest of us to starve or live in poverty: Yes:89 0.6054421768707483 No:52 0.35374149659863946 N/A:6 0.04081632653061224 The machines won't need us, and we'll starve to death or be otherwise liquidated: Yes:32 0.21768707482993196 No:109 0.7414965986394558 N/A:6 0.04081632653061224 Other: Yes:0 0.0 No:0 0.0 N/A:0 0.0 Which disaster do you think is most likely to wipe out greater than 90% of humanity before the year 2100?: Nuclear war:27 0.184 Asteroid strike:6 0.041 Unfriendly AI:14 0.095 Nanotech / grey goo:5 0.034 Pandemic (natural):16 0.109 Pandemic (bioengineered):29 0.197 Environmental collapse (including global warming):24 0.163 Economic / political collapse:13 0.088 Other:0 0.0 None:13 0.088 GROUP_6 BRIER SCORE INTERVAL: 0.5142056949138746 SAMPLE SIZE: 28 On a scale of one to five (where one is "Strongly disagree" and five is "Strongly agree"), rate how much you agree with this statement: "MIRI's mission of doing mathematical research relevant to friendly self-improving artificial intelligence is very important.": 1.0: 4 0.14285714285714285 2.0: 2 0.07142857142857142 3.0: 6 0.21428571428571427 4.0: 5 0.17857142857142858 5.0: 8 0.2857142857142857 5.0: 3 0.10714285714285714 On a scale of one to five (where one is "Strongly disagree" and five is "Strongly agree"), rate how much you agree with this statement: "Whether or not I agree with MIRI's goals, I believe MIRI is a well-run organization that pursues its goals effectively.": 1.0: 4 0.14285714285714285 2.0: 2 0.07142857142857142 3.0: 11 0.39285714285714285 4.0: 4 0.14285714285714285 5.0: 2 0.07142857142857142 5.0: 5 0.17857142857142858 Do you know what the Center For Applied Rationality is?: Yes:20 0.714 No but I've heard of it:3 0.107 No:2 0.071 None:3 0.107 Have you attended CFAR?: No, and I don't plan to:12 0.429 No, and I would like to:10 0.357 I have attended a paid or volunteer program with CFAR:2 0.071 I have led a program at CFAR:0 0.0 None:4 0.143What's your overall opinion of the Center For Applied Rationality?
: Positive:5 0.179 Mostly Positive:9 0.321 No strong opinion:7 0.25 Mostly Negative:3 0.107 Negative:0 0.0 None:4 0.143 Do you know what Effective Altruism is?: Yes:22 0.786 No but I've heard of it:2 0.071 No:2 0.071 None:2 0.071 Do you self-identify as an Effective Altruist?: Yes:9 0.321 No:16 0.571 N/A:3 0.107 Do you participate in the Effective Altruism community?: Yes:5 0.179 No:20 0.714 N/A:3 0.107 Has Effective Altruism caused you to make donations you otherwise wouldn't?: Yes:8 0.286 No:17 0.607 N/A:3 0.107 Have you ever had any kind of moral anxiety over Effective Altruism?: Yes:6 0.214 Yes but only because I worry about everything:3 0.107 No:15 0.536 None:4 0.143 What's your overall opinion of Effective Altruism?: Positive:13 0.464 Mostly Positive:2 0.071 No strong opinion:5 0.179 Mostly Negative:4 0.143 Negative:1 0.036 None:3 0.107 With which of these political positions do you most identify?: Progressive:5 0.179 Communist:0 0.0 Socialist:4 0.143 Conservative:0 0.0 Fascist:0 0.0 Neoreactionary:1 0.036 Social Democrat:2 0.071 Moderate:1 0.036 Pragmatist:2 0.071 Anarchist:2 0.071 Libertarian:0 0.0 Left-Libertarian:4 0.143 Objectivist:0 0.0 Monarchist:0 0.0 Futarchist:0 0.0 Totalitarian:0 0.0 Other:4 0.14285714285714285 None:3 0.107 Did you vote in your country's last major national election?: Yes:18 0.643 No:8 0.286 My country does not hold elections:0 0.0 None:2 0.071 If you are an American, what party are you registered with?: Democratic Party:8 0.286 Republican Party:1 0.036 Libertarian Party:1 0.036 Other third party:0 0.0 Not registered for a party:11 0.393 (option for non-Americans who want an option):4 0.143 None:3 0.107 On a scale from 1 (not interested at all) to 5 (extremely interested), how would you describe your level of interest in politics?: 1.0: 0 0.0 2.0: 4 0.14285714285714285 3.0: 4 0.14285714285714285 4.0: 10 0.35714285714285715 5.0: 7 0.25 5.0: 3 0.10714285714285714 How would you describe your opinion on abortion laws?: Abortion: Pro-Life:2 0.07142857142857142 Lean Pro-Life:0 0.0 No strong opinion:2 0.07142857142857142 Lean Pro-Choice:4 0.14285714285714285 Pro-Choice:18 0.6428571428571429 None:2 0.07142857142857142 How would you describe your opinion on immigration?: Immigration: Should be more open:13 0.4642857142857143 Lean more open:4 0.14285714285714285 No strong opinion:6 0.21428571428571427 Lean more restricted:1 0.03571428571428571 Should be more restricted:2 0.07142857142857142 None:2 0.07142857142857142 How would you describe your opinion on taxes in your country?: Taxes: Should be lower:1 0.03571428571428571 Lean towards lower:5 0.17857142857142858 No strong opinion:7 0.25 Lean towards higher:6 0.21428571428571427 Should be higher:7 0.25 None:2 0.07142857142857142 How would you describe your opinion on minimum wage laws in your country?: Minimum Wage: Should be lower or eliminated:3 0.10714285714285714 Lean towards lower or eliminated:6 0.21428571428571427 No strong opinion:7 0.25 Lean towards higher:2 0.07142857142857142 Should be higher:8 0.2857142857142857 None:2 0.07142857142857142 How would you describe your opinion of feminism, as you understand the term? See also http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Feminism for more information: Feminism: Very unfavorable:5 0.17857142857142858 Unfavorable:3 0.10714285714285714 No strong opinion:5 0.17857142857142858 Favorable:3 0.10714285714285714 Very favorable:10 0.35714285714285715 None:2 0.07142857142857142 How would you describe your opinion of social justice, as you understand the term? See also http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_justice for more information: Social Justice: Very unfavorable:6 0.21428571428571427 Unfavorable:2 0.07142857142857142 No strong opinion:4 0.14285714285714285 Favorable:8 0.2857142857142857 Very favorable:6 0.21428571428571427 None:2 0.07142857142857142 How would you describe your opinion of the idea of "human biodiversity", as you understand the term? No Wiki page available, but essentially it is the belief that there are important genetic differences between human populations and that therefore ideas generally considered racist, such as different races having different average intelligence or personality traits, are in fact scientifically justified: Human Biodiversity: Very unfavorable:3 0.10714285714285714 Unfavorable:5 0.17857142857142858 No strong opinion:9 0.32142857142857145 Favorable:7 0.25 Very favorable:2 0.07142857142857142 None:2 0.07142857142857142 How would you describe your opinion of a Basic Income Guarantee in your country? See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_Income_Guarantee for more information.: Basic Income: Strongly oppose:1 0.03571428571428571 Oppose:0 0.0 No strong opinion:5 0.17857142857142858 Support:8 0.2857142857142857 Strongly support:12 0.42857142857142855 None:2 0.07142857142857142 Do you believe we are currently in or entering a "Great Stagnation", as proposed by Tyler Cowen and Peter Thiel, during which technological growth slows drastically? See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Great_Stagnation for more information: Great Stagnation: Strongly doubt:8 0.2857142857142857 Doubt:11 0.39285714285714285 No strong opinion:4 0.14285714285714285 Believe:2 0.07142857142857142 Strongly believe:1 0.03571428571428571 None:2 0.07142857142857142 Do you understand the instructions above?: Yes, I understand I should answer in percentages between 0 and 100:27 0.964 No, I don't read instructions and am going to ruin the survey results for everyone:0 0.0 None:1 0.036 CalibrationQuestions: ProbabilityQuestions: : Please give the obvious answer to this question, so I can automatically throw away all surveys that don't follow the rules: What is the probability of a fair coin coming up heads? : Sum:1250.0 Mean:50.0 Median:50.0 Mode:50.0 What is the probability that the Many Worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics is more or less correct?: Sum:837.71001 Mean:44.09000052631579 Median:33.0 Mode:All values found equally likely. What is the probability that non-human, non-Earthly intelligent life exists in the observable universe?: Sum:1634.0998998999 Mean:71.04782173477827 Median:95.0 Mode:All values found equally likely. ...in the Milky Way galaxy?: Sum:797.0219999990999 Mean:36.22827272723182 Median:7.5 Mode:1.0 What is the probability that supernatural events (including God, ghosts, magic, etc) have occurred since the beginning of the universe?: Sum:267.1101099999 Mean:22.259175833325 Median:3.0 Mode:1.0 What is the probability that there is a god, defined as a supernatural intelligent entity who created the universe?: Sum:234.11101 Mean:16.722215 Median:1.0 Mode:1.0 What is the probability that any of humankind's revealed religions is more or less correct?: Sum:71.31000010000001 Mean:8.9137500125 Median:2.6 Mode:All values found equally likely. What is the probability that an average person cryonically frozen today will be successfully restored to life at some future time, conditional on no global catastrophe destroying civilization before then?: Sum:446.01009999999997 Mean:23.474215789473686 Median:5.0 Mode:All values found equally likely. What is the probability that at least one person living at this moment will reach an age of one thousand years, conditional on no global catastrophe destroying civilization in that time?: Sum:500.1010000001 Mean:23.814333333338094 Median:5.0 Mode:1.0 What is the probability that our universe is a simulation?: Sum:415.01002099999994 Mean:24.412354176470586 Median:10.0 Mode:50.0 What is the probability that significant global warming is occurring or will soon occur, and is primarily caused by human actions?: Sum:1846.999 Mean:83.9545 Median:95.0 Mode:All values found equally likely. What is the probability that the human race will make it to 2100 without any catastrophe that wipes out more than 90% of humanity?: Sum:1778.9989999999 Mean:80.86359090908637 Median:90.0 Mode:90.0 Are you signed up for cryonics?: Yes - signed up or just finishing up paperwork:1 0.036 No - would like to sign up but unavailable in my area:1 0.036 No - would like to sign up but haven't gotten around to it:3 0.107 No - would like to sign up but can't afford it:2 0.071 No - still considering it:11 0.393 No - and do not want to sign up for cryonics:7 0.25 Never thought about it / don't understand:0 0.0 None:3 0.107 Do you think cryonics, as currently practiced by Alcor/Cryonics Institute will work?: Yes:3 0.107 Maybe:14 0.5 No:7 0.25 None:4 0.143 Do you think cryonics works in principle?: Yes:14 0.5 Maybe:6 0.214 No:4 0.143 None:4 0.143 Singularity (Section Header): By what year do you think the Singularity will occur? Answer such that you think, conditional on the Singularity occurring, there is an even chance of the Singularity falling before or after this year. If you think a singularity is so unlikely you don't even want to condition on it, leave this question blank.: Sum:47019.0 Mean:2474.684210526316 Median:2160.0 Mode:2070.0 Have you ever made any kind of personal health change with the goal of living to see the singularity? (If multiple please separate with commas.): Superbabies (Section Header): Would you ever consider having your child genetically modified for any reason?: Yes:22 0.786 No:1 0.036 N/A:5 0.179 Would you be willing to have your child genetically modified to prevent them from getting an inheritable disease?: Yes:19 0.679 Depends on the disease:3 0.107 No:1 0.036 None:5 0.179 Would you be willing to have your child genetically modified for improvement purposes? (eg. To heighten their intelligence or reduce their risk of schizophrenia.): Yes :0 0.0 Maybe a little:3 0.107 Depends on the strength of the improvements:3 0.107 No:1 0.036 None:5 0.179 Would you be willing to have your child genetically modified for cosmetic reasons? (eg. To make them taller or have a certain eye color.): Yes:10 0.357 Maybe a little:4 0.143 Depends on the strength of the improvements:4 0.143 No:5 0.179 None:5 0.179 What's your overall opinion of other people genetically modifying their children for disease prevention purposes?: Positive:18 0.643 Mostly Positive:4 0.143 No strong opinion:1 0.036 Mostly Negative:0 0.0 Negative:1 0.036 None:4 0.143 What's your overall opinion of other people genetically modifying their children for improvement purposes?: Positive:8 0.286 Mostly Positive:9 0.321 No strong opinion:4 0.143 Mostly Negative:1 0.036 Negative:2 0.071 None:4 0.143 What's your overall opinion of other people genetically modifying their children for cosmetic reasons?: Positive:5 0.179 Mostly Positive:5 0.179 No strong opinion:8 0.286 Mostly Negative:4 0.143 Negative:2 0.071 None:4 0.143 Do you think the Luddite's Fallacy is an actual fallacy?: Yes:6 0.214 No:15 0.536 N/A:7 0.25 By what year do you think the majority of people in your country will have trouble finding employment for automation related reasons? If you think this is something that will never happen leave this question blank.: Sum:25029.0 Mean:2085.75 Median:2055.5 Mode:2050.0 Do you think the "end of work" would be a good thing?: Yes:19 0.679 No:5 0.179 N/A:4 0.143 If machines end all or almost all employment, what are your biggest worries? Pick two.: People will just idle about in destructive ways: Yes:8 0.2857142857142857 No:19 0.6785714285714286 N/A:1 0.03571428571428571 People need work to be fulfilled and if we eliminate work we'll all feel deep existential angst: Yes:8 0.2857142857142857 No:19 0.6785714285714286 N/A:1 0.03571428571428571 The rich are going to take all the resources for themselves and leave the rest of us to starve or live in poverty: Yes:16 0.5714285714285714 No:11 0.39285714285714285 N/A:1 0.03571428571428571 The machines won't need us, and we'll starve to death or be otherwise liquidated: Yes:6 0.21428571428571427 No:21 0.75 N/A:1 0.03571428571428571 Other: Yes:0 0.0 No:0 0.0 N/A:0 0.0 Which disaster do you think is most likely to wipe out greater than 90% of humanity before the year 2100?: Nuclear war:6 0.214 Asteroid strike:3 0.107 Unfriendly AI:2 0.071 Nanotech / grey goo:0 0.0 Pandemic (natural):2 0.071 Pandemic (bioengineered):3 0.107 Environmental collapse (including global warming):6 0.214 Economic / political collapse:1 0.036 Other:1 0.03571428571428571 None:4 0.143